Guess the Lines Week 1, Plus Favorite NFL Futures With Cousin Sal

Key takeaways

• Guess the Lines finished essentially even, 10-10 with ties, after Simmons pulled close late. Notable Week 1 spreads: Seahawks -3.5 over the Patriots in the Wednesday kickoff game (identical to the Super Bowl line), Rams -3.5 over the 49ers in Australia, Texans only -1.5 over the Bills, Ravens -3.5 at Indianapolis, Bengals -3.5 over Tampa Bay, Lions -6.5 over the Saints, Eagles -5.5 over Washington, Cowboys -2.5 at the Giants, and Chiefs -2.5 over Denver on Monday night.
• The Rams-49ers travel split is the week's big storyline. The Rams plan to land about 24 hours before kickoff and leave immediately, while the 49ers left in July to acclimate and get away from their practice field. Both hosts think the Rams' approach is arrogant, and Sal leans toward the 49ers as a live underdog, noting the line would likely be five in a normal home game.
• Teasers return as a format centerpiece. The hosts say they lobbied FanDuel for -110 juice on teasers up to $50 using their code, versus the -139 or worse found elsewhere. Lions -6.5 and Texans -1.5 are flagged as prime candidates, with a firm rule against ever teasing through zero.
• Ringer 107 changes this year: each show locks four picks midweek and holds the fifth until Sunday morning for injury and weather news, a fix for last season's frustration of committing on Thursday.
• Futures targets included the Jets to finish third in the AFC East (+100), a Falcons-and-Dolphins both-finish-fourth parlay (+343), Tampa Bay to win the NFC South (+175), Dak Prescott MVP (18-1), Zach Taylor Coach of the Year (27-1), Myles Garrett Defensive Player of the Year (4-1), Dolphins worst record (+220), Houston and Seattle both making the playoffs (+112), and multiple 4,000-yard quarterback bets on Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence, and Caleb Williams.
• Simmons is fading Atlanta and Washington in every form, arguing the market has not adjusted to weak offensive lines and thin rosters, while both hosts stayed bullish on the Buccaneers' front seven and a healthy Baker Mayfield.

Notable moments

• "We're back, baby. Year 20. Guess the lines." The anniversary open after a winter Sal dismisses as "eight months of soccer and horseshit basketball."
• Sal on Michigan's escape against Western Michigan: "a Hail Mary should never be completed... So play some effing defense," plus a complaint that stadium and official clocks should sync like two phones.
• On the Rams' Australia flight: "you're going to want to stare at the toilet moving backwards for three days before you want to practice."
• Sal likens Clippers fans wanting out of the Kawhi Leonard situation to a diner told their 7:30 reservation is now 8:30: "just give me my car. I want out."
• Simmons asks whether any player in the four major sports has "crippled their franchise for as long as Deshaun Watson."
• Bill's eyewear saga: minus-10 prescription, five-week manufacturing time, and contacts "about literally about to die in my eyes" during the taping.
• Sal treats his NFC South futures like a confession: betting the division is "worse" than adultery, "probably like some kind of second degree."
• Simmons' tennis rant: "Serena's done. Tennis matches are too long," proposing sets to five games instead of six.
• Bill calls his daughter's Sunday 11 a.m. soccer game against Week 1 kickoffs "an all-time outrage" and a "personal attack" by the coaches.
• On backing Tampa despite the division's history: "you get to the parking lot, you're doing shots of Jägermeister in the car."

Note: the transcript cuts off during the futures draft, before the hosts give their stated Super Bowl picks.

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