Our 2026 Spanish GP predictions

Key takeaways

• The hosts are skeptical about the Madrid layout, comparing it to Valencia, Sochi, and Azerbaijan, with clumsy 90-degree corners, one real braking zone at Turn 1, no obvious overtaking spots, and some added banking. Their main hope for entertainment rests on teams having zero setup data, huge track evolution across practice, and dusty walls forcing incidents.
• Tommy sits 13 points ahead in the personal championship (45-32) and is deliberately avoiding team picks after they cost him points, going for individual drivers instead: good surprise Carlos Sainz on his home weekend, flop Nico Hülkenberg, and pole plus P1 for Lando Norris.
• Matt, trailing, plays aggressively by stacking his podium with the top of the standings: pole for George Russell, then a race result of Norris P2 and championship leader Kimi Antonelli winning, arguing Antonelli won from 19th the previous week and is a safe podium bet every race.
• Both hosts back a McLaren rebound, framing Monza as a one-off caused by Norris missing his final qualifying run and losing the tow, and expecting a fiddly circuit to suit McLaren more like Zandvoort and Hungary did.
• Charles Leclerc is Matt's recurring pick (good surprise and P3) on the logic that Ferrari struggle less away from power circuits and the upgraded power unit worked well at Monza, though he keeps threatening to never predict Leclerc again.
• Crazy predictions split on carnage: Matt says no V-Carb in the top 10 in qualifying or the race, while Tommy bets on no safety car or virtual safety car at all, expecting a processional race despite fan expectations of a Baku-style bloodbath.

Notable moments

• Opening bit with Bruno the dog brought to the mic and "yawning" at the mention of Madrid.
• Tommy's jab that Matt only has to "score none" to beat last week's minus-one, and disappointment the Instagram graphic didn't show minus one.
• Praise for Lando Norris launching his LN4 Fusion racing team, running in Italian F4 up to Formula 3 for 2027 with Formula 2 ambitions, and for his electric-yellow helmet branding inspired by Valentino Rossi.
• The Turn 5 discussion about players in the F1 game flying over the chicane like touring cars bouncing the curbs, with the hosts agreeing track limits will stop that in the real race.
• Matt forgetting the Silverstone "home race curse" graphic mid-sentence and getting visibly frustrated at himself.
• The Patreon prediction from R&B Sheep about Perez jumping Bottas in the standings, sparking a countback debate about a 13th-place finish deciding championship position ahead of a Cadillac.
• Matt calling his mum unprompted, who picks a Russell-led Mercedes one-two with Verstappen third, followed by the running gag about her finally saying "love you" back after three tries.
• Tommy phoning his wife, the call glitching so neither hears a hello, feeding the joke that she does not want to be on the show; she picks Norris, Antonelli, Verstappen.
• Family top-three championship noted as the "prestige" one where the prize money sits, mirroring the constructors, with drivers getting "absolutely nothing."
• Both hosts signing off genuinely excited for a practice session, which they admit is rare.

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