The 2026 Summer Box Office Winners, Losers, and Head-Scratchers

Key takeaways

• The domestic summer box office finished 9.4% ahead of the pre-pandemic average and 26.6% ahead of last year, with roughly 323 million tickets sold, up 23%. Year-to-date gross sits just 7.2% below pre-pandemic levels. The hosts frame this as a genuine recovery after five years of pessimistic predictions, though the numbers are not inflation-adjusted.
• Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the story of the summer, tracking toward about $2.5 billion worldwide and already third all-time. Sony sold it as the direct follow-up to a recent, well-liked Spider-Man rather than a giant MCU crossover, with no multi-Spider-Man reunion or A-list villain. The takeaway: a superhero movie can overperform by simply being good.
• The Odyssey reached $1.5 billion by being "hyper-eventized" through the 70mm IMAX rollout (extended to end of September) and a cast stacked with movie stars, while still playing well in ordinary theaters. Both hosts undershot it badly, predicting roughly $750 million to $1 billion.
• Big money-losers piled up: Masters of the Universe (~$113M worldwide on a $200M-plus budget, now doing well on Prime Video), Supergirl (~$126M), Mandalorian and Grogu (~$345M, the lowest-grossing Star Wars film ever), live-action Moana (~$315M on $250M-plus), and Minions and Monsters ($513M, a steep drop from the franchise's usual $800-900M).
• Theaters still lean on studio flops. Mandalorian and Moana together produced roughly $700 million in box office that exhibitors needed, echoing 2023, when high-grossing disappointments like Indiana Jones 5 and The Flash propped up the calendar alongside Barbenheimer.
• Accountability scorecard: Belloni edged Mendelson six points to five with two ties. Belloni's worst call was ranking Toy Story 5 his most confident pick at 13; it grew only modestly to $1.14 billion rather than becoming another Inside Out 2. Mendelson correctly doubted Mortal Kombat 2 ($129M worldwide, no part three coming) but overshot on Minions at 13.
• Winners on the confidence scale: Devil Wears Prada 2 ($692M worldwide, arguably the biggest live-action straight comedy ever) and Scary Movie 6 ($232M on a $40M budget), which Mendelson dubbed a "Paramount blockbuster" model of profitable singles and doubles. Spielberg's Disclosure Day underperformed at $241M against a $300M-plus target, a ding for him on original material.

Notable moments

• Around 04:00, the debate over whether Devil Wears Prada 2 counts as a comedy or, per Belloni, "a fashion celebration" like Sex and the City.
• Near 08:00, Mendelson explains he was fooled by Disney's CinemaCon footage for Mandalorian and Grogu: "the first 15 minutes of this movie are awesome. The rest of the movie, I think, is fine, but fine wasn't enough."
• Around 11:00, both hosts pre-ranked Masters of the Universe dead last; Mendelson notes it made less worldwide than two cheaper early-April releases and calls the post-credits She-Ra tease "genuinely cruel."
• Near 19:00, Supergirl discussion: advice to Warner Bros. to never again send a lone star out for "an awkward interview for 15 minutes," plus "don't admit that the dog is CGI."
• Around 25:00, the Minions problem: Universal released it too soon after the last one, and the 1920s Hollywood setting that charmed critics left kids and general audiences cold.
• Near 30:00, Belloni on the live-action remake formula: these films "have to do something," pointing to Will Smith in Aladdin, and worries aloud about star-free Tangled.
• Around 47:00, Craig tallies the final score and adds his own "big wins" metric; Belloni: "I'll take any wins where I can get it, especially this year where I'm going to get my butt kicked in the box office draft."
• Near 49:00, Belloni reveals he hit 10 of 13 opening-weekend over/under calls, then flags Joe Russo admitting Avengers: Doomsday started shooting without a finished script.

Time saved: 42 minutes.