Four Big Stories: Emmys ’26, Summer Box Office Pushback, Fed Tax Credit Odds, and ‘60 Minutes’ 2.0

Key takeaways

• The summer box office "record" of $4.76 billion (May 1 to Labor Day) beats 2019's raw total by 9%, but inflation-adjusting 2019 to $5.7 billion puts this summer 17% below it. Attendance tells the real story: 568.4 million tickets sold January through mid-August, down 30% from 2019, roughly 248 million fewer admissions, with higher prices ($12.75 average, about $20 for IMAX) papering over the drop.
• The gains came partly from mechanics rather than health: an extra week of summer because Labor Day fell late, and 40 wide releases on 2,000-plus screens versus 34 last year. Belloni argues the lesson is simply to release more movies, since even "flops" like Mandalorian, Supergirl, and Moana add a few hundred million that theaters want for slate diversity and moviegoing habit.
• Box office has become bimodal. Cultural-moment films (the Odyssey, the new Spider-Man, Obsession) pull in casual and reluctant viewers through FOMO, while titles that get bad reviews and bad box-office press collapse immediately because audiences will wait for streaming. Both hosts graded the summer an A, not an A-plus.
• IMAX had a huge quarter thanks to the Odyssey (over $200 million domestic, about 35% of the film's domestic total from 11% of screens), but IMAX-touted flops like Mandalorian show the company depends on two or three big titles a year. Belloni says IMAX should sell now, between the Odyssey and Dune and before the Avengers film he keeps calling "Infinity Vision."
• Both expect a federal production tax credit to pass before the new Congress is seated, helped by Trump's endorsement and a bipartisan push led by Rep. Laura Friedman, plus Republicans in Georgia, Louisiana, New Jersey, and New Mexico. Shaw is more skeptical, citing thin constituency and the optics of subsidizing Hollywood. Belloni's worry is that compromises strip out full refundability and above-the-line (star salary) subsidies, the exact feature drawing Marvel and Harry Potter to the UK, leaving a toothless bill.
• The 60 Minutes relaunch under Bari Weiss and Nick Bilton promises changes to every element (no walk-and-talks, no opening book, more subject-matter experts, unfamiliar correspondents). Belloni calls it meddling with the number-one broadcast; he argues the show should keep satisfying its older audience while chasing young viewers through YouTube and Instagram clips instead.

Notable moments

• "These records are bullshit... yet I am also part of the problem because I am too lazy to go in and put every number into the inflation meter."
• Belloni's mother, who does not watch superhero movies, went to see the new Spider-Man because he told her it was good; the Odyssey and Obsession drew similar reluctant crowds.
• After two Emmy nights: Apple TV 19 wins, HBO Max 16, Netflix only 13, with Shaw noting Netflix inflates totals in creative-arts categories outside the primetime show.
• Prediction that Widows Bay could beat Hacks for Best Comedy Series, which "will annoy Casey Bloys to no end because of the whole Apple is the new HBO narrative."
• A24's demand for higher splits led Arizona's Harkins chain to skip a recent Tony release; Shaw doubts A24's brand is strong enough to push around exhibitors.
• On tax-credit rivals: "The UK is the enemy here and Canada," with foreign jurisdictions reportedly calling US lawyers and consultants, anxious because roughly 80-plus percent of UK production investment now comes from America.
• Jeff Zucker showed up on the Venice carpet for the Robert Pattinson-as-Chris-Hansen film Primetime despite appearing in it for about 20 seconds.
• Call sheet segment: Nathan Fielder's Elizabeth Holmes documentary got a surprise Telluride screening; Belloni warns against declaring "the first documentary that's going to contend for best picture" so soon.
• Rundown of A24's crowded fall slate (You Can See Everything, Primetime, Misty Green, Club Kid, The Debut), with both hosts picking Primetime as the likely box-office leader and The Debut (tracking $12 million opening) second.
• Over/under on the 60 Minutes premiere hitting last year's 10 million viewers: Shaw takes the under, Belloni the over, citing "looky-loos" curious whether the Ellison-owned show feels different.

Time saved: 32 minutes.