Reaction to Bahrain GP (in Malaysia) qualifying

Key takeaways

• Verstappen and Red Bull look like genuine contenders. Max put nearly half a second on teammate Hadjar, whose P3 was a strong result. The hosts argue it is both Max extracting the car and Red Bull getting it into a good window, now that the in-house engine is working. Max finished less than two tenths off the win in Baku. Hadjar carries a grid penalty that drops him to eighth, so his race will turn on tyres.
• Mercedes' upgrade looks like a tyre and track problem. The hosts call it an outlier. Heat and the abrasive surface spike tyre temperatures over a single lap, and Russell was visibly fighting the car on his onboard. They expect the engine upgrade to show once the series reaches a normal surface. Russell is the only realistic title rival to Antonelli, so the hosts do not see the championship swinging.
• The Antonelli mistake cost him a run, not a result. Kimi ran wide on track limits in Q2, which forced him onto a fresh tyre set and gave him just one flying lap in Q3. He still starts third after Hadjar's penalty, a second clear of Russell, and said P2 or P3 was possible with two attempts. The hosts see him as Verstappen's biggest threat on Sunday.
• The Aston Martin and Hamilton results reflect an odd circuit. Alonso and Stroll reached Q2 at what the hosts call the highest-power track where Aston has done well. The hosts think experience and tyre handling helped, and they expect it to be a flash in the pan. Hamilton's front-row lap came from a middle sector a quarter of a second faster than anyone, which the hosts see as over-delivery rather than real Ferrari pace.
• Haas and Audi swung with the track. Hülkenberg and Albon both made Turn 14 errors and were knocked out in Q1. Bortoletto reached Q3 for Audi, where Gasly and he skipped fresh tyres to save a set. Bearman and Ocon went out in Q1, and Ocon's exit from Haas is now confirmed. Bottas beat his Cadillac teammate by three tenths on the low-grip surface.
• Race strategy is a real unknown. Ferrari and others saved a set of softs, which hints at a Hamilton soft-tyre start against Verstappen on mediums. The hosts expect tyre-saving crawls but hope for battles. They think a Verstappen-Hamilton collision is less likely than in 2021, since neither is fighting for the title.

Notable moments

• Tommy gets his wish at this track: "I think we should race at this track every week."
• Lindblad apparently tried to give Liam Lawson a tow in Q2, a joke about their Baku incident. It didn't get Lawson through.
• A Patreon pitch asks whether it's Red Bull or Max being Max. The answer: "it is Max being Max."
• The hosts discuss James Vowles blaming the budget cap for the gap to the top four. They disagree and point to 2017, when the gap was arguably bigger.
• Hadjar's gap to Max prompts a comparison with years when the second Red Bull was knocked out in Q1.
• The hosts coin "upgrade bait" for upgrades that don't translate into pace.
• Tommy's final thought is "Come on, Max."

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